Sports Gambling Ideas — Earning money Through Betting

October 31, 2020 Business  No comments

I’m the Sports Editor for a sports news and gambling website. I have a long time experience of gambling, sports journalism and study of mathematics. Am I a gambling expert? Well, I suppose you can say that.

You will find innumerable so-called gambling experts ready to dish out information of their systems to’beat the bookie’or to produce a second income from gambling, for an amount of course. I won’t do that. I will simply give you information regarding bookmakers, odds and gambling for you yourself to use (or forget) as you see fit.

The very first thing to mention is that the vast majority of men and women who participate in gambling will soon be net losers over time Here is the very reason there are so many bookmakers making so much money throughout the world.

While bookmakers can sometimes take big hits, as an example if a favourite wins the Grand National, they spread their risk so widely and they set up markets that incorporate a margin, so they will always make a profit within the medium to long term, if not the short term. That’s, provided that they got their sums right.

When setting their odds for a specific event, bookmakers must first assess the likelihood of that event occurring. To get this done they us various statistical models centered on data collated over years, sometime decades, about the activity and team/competitor in question. Of course, if sport was 100% predictable, it’d soon lose its appeal, and whilst the bookies tend to be spot on with their assessments of the likelihood of an event, they’re sometimes way off the mark, mainly because a match or contest goes against conventional wisdom and statistical likelihood.

Just look at any sport and you will see an occasion once the underdog triumphs against all the odds, literally. Wimbledon beating the then mighty Liverpool in the FA Cup Final of 1988, as an example, or the USA beating the then mighty USSR at ice hockey in the 1980 Olympics are two examples of when you would have handsome odds on the underdog. And could have won a decent wedge.

The big bookmakers spend plenty of time and money ensuring they’ve the proper odds that ensure they take into consideration the perceived likelihood of the function, and you can add that extra little bit that provides them the profit margin. So if an event includes a likelihood of, say, 1/3, the odds that reflect that probability would be 2/1. That’s, two to at least one against that event occurring.

However, a bookie who set these odds would, as time passes, break even (assuming their stats are correct). So instead they’d set the odds at, say, 6/4. In this manner they’ve built in the margin that ensures, as time passes, they will profit from people betting on this selection. It’s exactly the same concept as a casino roulette.

So how could you spot the occasions when bookmakers have it wrong? Well, it’s easier said than done, but not even close to impossible.

One way is to have great at mathematical modelling and set up a type that takes into consideration as many of the variables that affect the end result of an event as possible. The situation with this particular tactic is that however complex the model, and however all-encompassing it appears, it cannot account fully for the minutiae of variables relating to individual human states of mind. Whether a player manages to hole a major-winning five foot putt on the 18th at St Andrews it is the maximum amount of down for their concentration as to the weather or day of the week. Also, the maths can begin getting pretty darn complicated.

Alternatively you will find yourself a sporting niche. Bookmakers will concentrate their resources on the events which make them probably the most money, generally found to be football (soccer), American football and horse racing. So trying to beat the bookies while betting on a Manchester United v Chelsea match will soon be tough. Unless you benefit one of the clubs, or are married to one of the players or managers, it is most likely the bookmaker setting the odds will have more details than you.

However, if you should be betting on non-league football, or badminton, or crown green bowls, it is possible, through hard work reading lots of stats, and general information gathering, you can start to achieve a benefit over bookies (if they even set odds for such things, which many do).

And what do you do if you have a benefit in information terms? You follow the value.

Value betting is where you back a selection at odds which are higher than the particular likelihood of an event occurring. So as an example, in the event that you assess the likelihood of a specific non-league football team (Grimsby Town, say) winning their next football match as 1/3 or 33%, and you discover a bookmaker who has set the odds of 3/1, you have a benefit bet on your hands. The reason being, odds of 3/1 (excluding the margin built in by the bookie) suggest a likelihood of 1/4 or 25%. The bookie, in your now learned opinion, has underrated Grimsby’s chances, so you have effectively built in an 8% margin for yourself.

Of course Grimsby (as is usually the case) might fluff their lines and don’t win the match, and hence you can lose the bet. But when you continue to look for and bet on value bets, as time passes you is likely to make a profit. If you don’t, as time passes, you’ll lose. Simple.

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